Ukrainian Perspectives on the US Presidential Election

The top news story today around the world is the US Presidential Election.  Here in Ukraine, the banner headline on the English-language newspaper Kyiv Post is “US Voters Go to the Polls.” Ukraine has its own specific interest in the election results; the citizens here believe that the next President can either save or damn their country – and will probably do so without him ever even noticing it.

Ukraine has two major issues: the economy, and Russia.

Along with the rest of the world, starting in September 2008 the Ukrainian financial sector suffered major shocks. One of the largest banks was turned over to a rescue administration, and many deposit accounts were frozen or withdrawls capped. This resulted in many companies being unable to access their funds, including operational capital, payroll, and accounts receivables/payables.  Many individual depositors were similarly affected.  Many banks have followed suit and limited withdrawls, and some assets are still frozen until roughly February 2009; as there is no FDIC in Ukraine, this measure was intended to prevent rampant bank runs.

Consequently, the value of the grivna fell from 5.05 to $1 to a low of 7.02 to $1 – in less than a month.  After the IMF announced a $16.5 billion bailout, approved by Parliament last Friday, the currency stabilized around 6 to $1.  The country’s primary export, steel, has also been in a drastic decline since 2007, leading to increasing unemployment and unrest.  Repeatedly in international headlines for the past month, the countries shown as most dramatically affected by the crisis are Iceland, Hungary, and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia has been encroaching on territories it lost in the collapse of the USSR.  The conflict over neighboring Georgia is watched closely by Ukrainians, as a bellwether of Russia’s goals for expansion.  The West-leaning Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, has openly pleaded with the EU to check Russia’s power.  “The West must seek to create counterweights to Russia’s expansionism and not place all its chips on Russian domestic reform,” she wrote last year.  As a neighbor to Russia, home to a sizeable Russian population, and possessor of tension-filled state of Crimea, Ukraine is in all too vulnerable a position.

There is an underlying sense of unease in this country.  I spoke to a humanitarian worker in Crimean Simferopol who lived through unannounced practice bombings and urban warfare taking place outside her apartment building last month.  Russia was reportedly issuing Russian passports to citizens there last week.  The Ukrainian economy is walking a tightrope between politics and solvency, and is dependent upon the US-funded IMF.

Today, as November 4th began here 7 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, many Ukrainians were informally polling their friends about the US election.  The news coverage was reporting and translating every political and polling story.  Despite Obama’s campaign slogan, there seems to be more fear than hope.

I spoke to a staff member at HOPE Ukraine, Kiva’s field partner in this region, about the information she’d gathered from friends, family, and coworkers that morning.  (HOPE Ukraine is an evangelical Christian organization, which uses the proceeds from its microfinance mission to fund Tomorrow Clubs children’s ministries.)

“Neither is a good candidate,” she said, summarizing the conversations.  “Obama supports abortion and gay marriage, which we oppose, so we would never vote for him if it was our country.  But John McCain’s policies on Russia are so militaristic and so dangerous.  He wants to try to isolate Russia, to kick it out of G8 and to take a hard line.  But Russia will not react well to that.  That is the spark that could start a war.”

A war that would play out right here in Ukraine.

A war that the West, busy with its own troubles and perhaps hoisted by its own petard in Georgia, might either ignore, or (diplomatic assertions aside) be too weak to fight.   And if that happens, what’s to become of Ukraine?

Economically, my Ukrainian friends have been tight-lipped. The US is the major backer and brain trust for the IMF. Ukraine is widely believed to be financially devastated if not for the IMF bailout, so Ukraine (like Iceland and Hungary) need the US to still be in enough of an economic and superpower position to keep funding and sinking brainpower into it.  But the candidates’ specific economic policies haven’t been discussed in any news that I can read, or talked about in any conversation I can access. When I ask I get almost no answer at all, perhaps because I am both an outsider and an American.

The fear of further economic, diplomatic, and even military strife has most Ukrainian news sources watching the American polls with a wary eye.  Their lives depend on a future most American voters won’t consider when they cast their ballots today.